Updated on Thursday 21 May 2020

Author: Javier Moldon

"No matter how much you talk about them or think about them, you will still underestimate exponentials".
Jeremy Howard

General statistics

List of most affected countries

Sorted by highest number of deaths

Deaths Confirmed Recovered Active
Country/Region
US 93439 (+1518) 1551853 (+23285) 294312 (+4920) 1164102 (+16847)
United Kingdom 35786 (+364) 249619 (-519) 1116 (+17) 212717 (-900)
Italy 32330 (+161) 227364 (+665) 132282 (+2881) 62752 (-2377)
France 28135 (+110) 181700 (+767) 63472 (+794) 90093 (-137)
Spain 27888 (+110) 232555 (+518) 150376 (+0) 54291 (+408)
Brazil 18859 (+876) 291579 (+19694) 116683 (+9889) 156037 (+8929)
Belgium 9150 (+42) 55983 (+192) 14847 (+160) 31986 (-10)
Germany 8144 (+63) 178473 (+695) 156966 (+1285) 13363 (-653)
Iran 7183 (+64) 126949 (+2346) 98808 (+1635) 20958 (+647)
Canada 6150 (+122) 81575 (+1082) 40793 (+724) 34632 (+236)
Mexico 6090 (+424) 56594 (+2248) 38419 (+1094) 12085 (+730)
Netherlands 5767 (+33) 44647 (+198) 169 (+2) 38711 (+163)
China 4638 (+0) 84063 (+0) 79310 (+0) 115 (+0)
Turkey 4222 (+23) 152587 (+972) 113987 (+1092) 34378 (-143)
Sweden 3831 (+88) 31523 (+724) 4971 (+0) 22721 (+636)
India 3434 (+132) 112028 (+5553) 45422 (+3113) 63172 (+2308)
Peru 3024 (+110) 104020 (+4537) 41968 (+5444) 59028 (-1017)
Russia 2972 (+135) 308705 (+8764) 85392 (+9262) 220341 (-633)
Ecuador 2888 (+49) 34854 (+703) 3557 (+100) 28409 (+554)
Switzerland 1892 (+1) 30658 (+40) 27800 (+100) 966 (-61)
Ireland 1571 (+10) 24315 (+64) 21060 (+1590) 1684 (-1536)
Portugal 1263 (+16) 29660 (+228) 6452 (+21) 21945 (+191)
Indonesia 1242 (+21) 19189 (+693) 4575 (+108) 13372 (+564)
Romania 1147 (+10) 17387 (+196) 10356 (+190) 5884 (-4)
Pakistan 985 (+46) 45898 (+1932) 13101 (+612) 31812 (+1274)

Global situation

These plots show the global situation of the countries with higher number of deaths.

Deaths

Confirmed Cases

World (except China)

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 20 May 2020 323477 (+4830) 4912409 (+98980) 1818156 (+58471)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 21 May 2020 323701 ( +3018) 4932057 ( +70486) 1834000 ( +40959)
Fri 22 May 2020 326527 ( +2826) 4999661 ( +67603) 1873540 ( +39540)
Sat 23 May 2020 329167 ( +2639) 5064312 ( +64651) 1911568 ( +38028)
Sun 24 May 2020 331626 ( +2459) 5125967 ( +61655) 1948009 ( +36441)
Mon 25 May 2020 333912 ( +2286) 5184610 ( +58643) 1982808 ( +34799)

China

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 20 May 2020 4638 (+0) 84063 (+0) 79310 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 21 May 2020 4637 ( +0) 84048 ( +1) 78109 ( +0)
Fri 22 May 2020 4637 ( +0) 84049 ( +1) 78109 ( +0)
Sat 23 May 2020 4637 ( +0) 84050 ( +1) 78109 ( +0)
Sun 24 May 2020 4637 ( +0) 84051 ( +1) 78109 ( +0)
Mon 25 May 2020 4637 ( +0) 84051 ( +1) 78109 ( +0)

Evolution of cases

All plots have the same information. Left: log scale, right: linear scale. Top: number of confirmed cases, deaths, recovered cases and active cases. An exponential or logistic function is fitted to the data and plotted as a line, with the confidence interval covering uncertainties of the fitted parameters of 1-$\sigma$ . Bottom: deaths per day. Active cases is simply confirmed - (deaths + recovered). Also note that the number of confirmations is not homogeneous among countries because it depends on how many tests are done and to what part of the population. Bottom-right: is a zoom to show the correct scale for deaths. The straight line is a fit to a logistic growth when possible. If the fit does not converge (low number of points in early stages) a simple exponential is used. The dashed line is a prediction based on the fit.

Spain

Spain is following Italy's behaviour and we should expect a smooth peak that lasts several days (more than the model predicts). That is because the peak should be sharp for a given population, but countries are the sum of several big cities with different peaks times. Therefore the peak is wider than predicted by the one-population curve fit.

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 20 May 2020 27888 (+110) 232555 (+518) 150376 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 21 May 2020 27675 ( +48) 228466 ( +130) 151181 ( +831)
Fri 22 May 2020 27717 ( +43) 228582 ( +116) 151932 ( +750)
Sat 23 May 2020 27756 ( +38) 228685 ( +103) 152608 ( +676)
Sun 24 May 2020 27790 ( +34) 228776 ( +91) 153216 ( +609)
Mon 25 May 2020 27821 ( +31) 228856 ( +81) 153763 ( +547)

Italy

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 20 May 2020 32330 (+161) 227364 (+665) 132282 (+2881)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 21 May 2020 31997 ( +71) 225740 ( +331) 132362 ( +2093)
Fri 22 May 2020 32062 ( +65) 226041 ( +300) 134374 ( +2012)
Sat 23 May 2020 32121 ( +59) 226314 ( +273) 136306 ( +1931)
Sun 24 May 2020 32175 ( +54) 226562 ( +248) 138156 ( +1851)
Mon 25 May 2020 32224 ( +49) 226787 ( +225) 139927 ( +1771)

United Kingdom

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 20 May 2020 35786 (+364) 249619 (-519) 1116 (+17)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 21 May 2020 35469 ( +179) 245278 ( +1413) 1387 ( +45)
Fri 22 May 2020 35631 ( +162) 246579 ( +1301) 1434 ( +47)
Sat 23 May 2020 35778 ( +146) 247775 ( +1196) 1482 ( +48)
Sun 24 May 2020 35910 ( +132) 248874 ( +1099) 1531 ( +50)
Mon 25 May 2020 36028 ( +119) 249883 ( +1009) 1583 ( +51)

United States

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 20 May 2020 93439 (+1518) 1551853 (+23285) 294312 (+4920)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 21 May 2020 93163 ( +791) 1539455 ( +12697) 295546 ( +5357)
Fri 22 May 2020 93887 ( +724) 1551202 ( +11747) 300637 ( +5092)
Sat 23 May 2020 94548 ( +661) 1562046 ( +10845) 305466 ( +4829)
Sun 24 May 2020 95150 ( +602) 1572038 ( +9992) 310036 ( +4570)
Mon 25 May 2020 95696 ( +547) 1581228 ( +9189) 314353 ( +4316)

France

I think the huge increase of death numbers on April 3 is due to this: France's Coronavirus Death Toll Jumps as Nursing Homes Included. April 2, 2020

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 20 May 2020 28135 (+110) 181700 (+767) 63472 (+794)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 21 May 2020 28075 ( +73) 178773 ( +79) 62462 ( +297)
Fri 22 May 2020 28141 ( +66) 178842 ( +69) 62733 ( +271)
Sat 23 May 2020 28201 ( +60) 178902 ( +60) 62981 ( +247)
Sun 24 May 2020 28255 ( +54) 178955 ( +53) 63205 ( +225)
Mon 25 May 2020 28304 ( +49) 179001 ( +46) 63409 ( +204)

Germany

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 20 May 2020 8144 (+63) 178473 (+695) 156966 (+1285)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 21 May 2020 8134 ( +33) 174189 ( +55) 155844 ( +518)
Fri 22 May 2020 8164 ( +30) 174236 ( +47) 156305 ( +462)
Sat 23 May 2020 8192 ( +28) 174277 ( +41) 156716 ( +411)
Sun 24 May 2020 8218 ( +26) 174313 ( +36) 157082 ( +365)
Mon 25 May 2020 8242 ( +24) 174345 ( +31) 157406 ( +325)

Netherlands

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 20 May 2020 5767 (+33) 44647 (+198) 169 (+2)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 21 May 2020 5785 ( +22) 43970 ( +51) nan ( +nan)
Fri 22 May 2020 5806 ( +20) 44016 ( +45) nan ( +nan)
Sat 23 May 2020 5825 ( +19) 44056 ( +40) nan ( +nan)
Sun 24 May 2020 5843 ( +18) 44092 ( +36) nan ( +nan)
Mon 25 May 2020 5859 ( +17) 44124 ( +32) nan ( +nan)

Belgium

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 20 May 2020 9150 (+42) 55983 (+192) 14847 (+160)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 21 May 2020 9176 ( +28) 54296 ( +66) 14751 ( +62)
Fri 22 May 2020 9200 ( +25) 54355 ( +59) 14807 ( +56)
Sat 23 May 2020 9222 ( +22) 54407 ( +53) 14857 ( +50)
Sun 24 May 2020 9241 ( +19) 54454 ( +47) 14902 ( +45)
Mon 25 May 2020 9259 ( +17) 54496 ( +42) 14943 ( +41)

Sweden

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 20 May 2020 3831 (+88) 31523 (+724) 4971 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 21 May 2020 3817 ( +39) 31720 ( +401) 5100 ( +1)
Fri 22 May 2020 3853 ( +37) 32102 ( +382) 5101 ( +0)
Sat 23 May 2020 3888 ( +35) 32465 ( +363) 5101 ( +0)
Sun 24 May 2020 3922 ( +33) 32810 ( +345) 5101 ( +0)
Mon 25 May 2020 3953 ( +32) 33136 ( +326) 5101 ( +0)

Poland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 20 May 2020 962 (+14) 19739 (+471) 8183 (+280)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 21 May 2020 962 ( +10) 19817 ( +286) 8306 ( +211)
Fri 22 May 2020 972 ( +10) 20091 ( +274) 8510 ( +204)
Sat 23 May 2020 982 ( +9) 20352 ( +261) 8707 ( +197)
Sun 24 May 2020 990 ( +9) 20600 ( +248) 8897 ( +190)
Mon 25 May 2020 999 ( +8) 20835 ( +235) 9079 ( +182)

Switzerland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 20 May 2020 1892 (+1) 30658 (+40) 27800 (+100)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 21 May 2020 1884 ( +2) 30371 ( +6) 27571 ( +44)
Fri 22 May 2020 1885 ( +1) 30376 ( +5) 27609 ( +38)
Sat 23 May 2020 1887 ( +1) 30381 ( +5) 27643 ( +33)
Sun 24 May 2020 1888 ( +1) 30385 ( +4) 27672 ( +29)
Mon 25 May 2020 1889 ( +1) 30389 ( +4) 27697 ( +26)

Brazil

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 20 May 2020 18859 (+876) 291579 (+19694) 116683 (+9889)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 21 May 2020 19287 ( +734) 299209 ( +14130) 126287 ( +7798)
Fri 22 May 2020 20010 ( +723) 313557 ( +14348) 134599 ( +8311)
Sat 23 May 2020 20718 ( +709) 328081 ( +14524) 143457 ( +8858)
Sun 24 May 2020 21411 ( +692) 342737 ( +14656) 152899 ( +9441)
Mon 25 May 2020 22085 ( +674) 357481 ( +14743) 162961 ( +10063)

Iran

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 20 May 2020 7183 (+64) 126949 (+2346) 98808 (+1635)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 21 May 2020 7072 ( +24) 121193 ( +347) 96490 ( +634)
Fri 22 May 2020 7094 ( +23) 121504 ( +312) 97089 ( +599)
Sat 23 May 2020 7115 ( +21) 121789 ( +285) 97655 ( +566)
Sun 24 May 2020 7135 ( +20) 122054 ( +264) 98188 ( +533)
Mon 25 May 2020 7153 ( +18) 122299 ( +246) 98691 ( +503)

Comparison of different countries

Other countries

South Korea has a remarkable recovery rate, with many cases and a reduced number of deaths. Japan growth is moderate, much smaller than in European countries. Iran is showing hints of flattening, although it is curious that the number of recoveries has significantly slowed down while the number of deaths still follow a very exponential trend.